Redefining Conflict Information-age Terrorism Politics in Cyberspace Fourth in a Series

rorism” makes the news almost every week. The idea of terrorists surreptitiously hacking into a government, military, commercial, or socially critical computer system to introduce a virus or worm, turn off a crucial public service, steal or alter sensitive information, deface or swamp a web site, route bogus messages, or plant a Trojan horse for future activation alarms security personnel, spellbinds the media, and genuinely worries policymakers. Although fears that the Y2K problem could provide opportunities to some terrorists have not been realized, other developments since January—such as the denial-of-service attacks against a few on-line commercial enterprises based in the United States (Yahoo! and eBay, among others), and speculation that software developers secretly associated with Aum Shinrikyo cult may have placed Trojan horses in sensitive computer systems in Japan—continue to enliven the threat of cyberterrorism. Cyberterrorism thus looks like the darkest downside of the information revolution. It is dramatic and it makes for quite a story. It is also a potentially serious threat, although most instances have had more in common with graffiti vandalism than with bomb-tossing anarchism. But a focus on the drama of cyberterrorism risks overlooking the broader phenomenon of which it is only a part: the rise of what we call “netwar.” Cyberterrorism and terrorist netwar are not the same thing (although at times some media conflate the two). While some terrorists will eventually have the technological skills or opportunities to engage in extremely damaging cyberterrorism, this is not the only dangerous implication of the information revolution. More seriously, this revolution is enabling new forms of organization and new doctrines that will affect the spectrum of conflict, including terrorism. Indeed, signs are already apparent that terrorist groups in the future will try to gain strength and extend their reach by organizing into transnational networks and developing swarming strategies and tactics for destroying targets, entirely apart from whether they can hack into a target’s computer system.